FEATURING:

Olga Bitel
William Blair Global Strategist

37
Taking an Economic Pulse

April 28, 2023 | 34:30

Every decade brings a different economic environment. What’s set to impact the 2020s? In this episode of The Active Share, join Hugo with guest Olga Bitel, partner and global strategist for William Blair Investment Management, for a wide-ranging discussion of what’s driving the U.S. and global economies, including inflation, recession risk, productivity, geopolitics, and interest rates.

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Hugo Scott-Gall, Partner
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SHOW NOTES
00:36	Host Hugo Scott-Gall introduces today’s guest, Olga Bitel.
02:41	The recession risk of the U.S. economy due to convulsions in the banking sector.
04:58	Unpacking the Fed’s response to increasing interest rates.
08:37	The short-term major drivers of inflation.
14:27	Navigating the transition from fossil fuels to cleaner energy.
18:49	Decoupling vs. deglobalization.
22:41	The decline of the fertility rate in the U.S.
24:34	How Olga thinks about productivity and its outcomes.
30:12	The role geopolitics will play in the future of interest rates.

Meet Our Moderator

Hugo Scott-Gall, Partner
VIEW BIO →

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Glossary

INDICES
The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based benchmark that measures the investment grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market, including Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, mortgage-backed securities (agency fixed-rate and hybrid ARM pass-throughs), asset-backed securities, and commercial mortgage backed securities.

The MSCI ACWI IMI Index is a free float-adjusted, market capitalization-weighted index that captures large, mid, and small cap representation across developed and emerging markets.

The MSCI ACWI ex-US IMI Index is a free float-adjusted, market capitalization-weighted index that captures large, mid, and small cap representation across developed and emerging markets, excluding the U.S. The Value and Growth Indices are a subset of the Index that adopt a framework for style segmentation in which value and growth securities are characterized using different attributes. Multiple factors are used to identify value and growth characteristics.

The MSCI ACWI Small Cap Index is a free float-adjusted, market capitalization-weighted index that captures small cap representation across developed and emerging markets.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted, market capitalization-weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of emerging markets.

The MSCI World Index is a free float-adjusted, market capitalization-weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets.

The Russell 2000 Index is a market capitalization-weighted index designed to represent the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe.

Index performance is for illustrative purposes only. The indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested in directly.

TERMS
Alpha is a measure of an investment’s return in excess of the market’s return, after both have been adjusted for risk.

Beta is a measure of the volatility of an investment relative to the overall market, represented by a comparable benchmark.

Half-life is a statistical measure of the time required for the discrepancy between price and value to contract by half of its starting value. Fundamental value estimates are based on the Dynamic Allocation Strategies team’s proprietary research.

P/E Ratio is a measure of valuation which compares share price to earnings per share, calculated using estimates for the next twelve months.

Standard deviation is a statistical measurement of variations from the average.

QUANTITATIVE MODELS – FACTOR DEFINITIONS
The William Blair Earnings Trend Model captures information about short- and medium-term changes in analyst estimates in an attempt to anticipate future estimate changes and stock performance. The score combines measurements of earnings revisions, momentum, and earnings surprise.

The William Blair Valuation Model combines varying metrics used to characterize the relationship between the stock’s trading price and its intrinsic value. By going beyond using only one or two measures, the model attempts to build a more holistic version of a stock’s worth vis-a-vis the market. The score combines measurements of earnings/cash flow based, asset-based, and model-based factors.

FEATURED TOPICS

U.S. EQUITY

GLOBAL EQUITY

EMERGING MARKETS DEBT

37
Taking an Economic Pulse

Meet Our Moderator

Meet Our Moderator

Questions, Comments, Podcast Ideas?

Create an
Enduring Partnership

Andrew Pinheiro

Insights From Denver

IMPORTANT INFORMATION

FEATURED TOPICS

U.S. EQUITY

GLOBAL EQUITY

EMERGING MARKETS DEBT

37Taking an Economic Pulse

Meet Our Moderator

Meet Our Moderator

Questions, Comments, Podcast Ideas?

Create an Enduring Partnership

Andrew Pinheiro

Insights From Denver

IMPORTANT INFORMATION

Privacy & Security

Cookie Policy

Our use of cookies

Additional Resources

Social Media Disclaimer

Glossary

37
Taking an Economic Pulse

Create an
Enduring Partnership