Turning Points for 2023

Turning Points for 2023

Olga and Hugo walk into the new year with an eye on potential trend shifts, such as the end of U.S. interest-rate hikes and a weakening U.S. dollar. They discuss China’s reopening as a source of growth and consider what it might take to launch the next bull market in...

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A New Era of Investing Dawns

A New Era of Investing Dawns

As we settle into the first quarter of 2023, it’s worth discussing the current cycle and the implications for markets in 2023—but the bigger issue is the developing likelihood we have begun to shift into a different economic and market environment, marking a different...

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Will Quality Small and Mid Cap Lead the Charge?

Will Quality Small and Mid Cap Lead the Charge?

As we entered 2022, the relative case for non-large caps looked exceptionally appealing. That outlook proved reasonable, with small-mid caps performing essentially in line with the S&P 500 Index after more than a decade of relative, and sometimes dramatic,...

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Is Emerging Markets Debt Well Positioned?

Is Emerging Markets Debt Well Positioned?

Despite softer economic conditions globally, emerging markets (EM) credit fundamentals remain supportive—and while we see some pockets of weakness, especially among energy- and food-importing countries, overall we believe EM debt is well positioned to withstand a...

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Diverse Thought, Endless Possibilities

Diverse Thought, Endless Possibilities

When a society embraces cognitive diversity, powerful outcomes can result. In this episode of The Active Share, Hugo sits down with Matthew Syed, a best-selling author, highly acclaimed speaker, and award-winning journalist, to discuss what it means to think in...

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2023: Our U.S. Teams Weigh In

2023: Our U.S. Teams Weigh In

Tightening monetary policy drove rising 10-year Treasury bond yields and pressured equity valuations in 2022. While impossible to predict what 2023 has in store—especially because interest-rate changes can have a lagged effect on corporate earnings—we asked our U.S....

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Episode 34: Revenge of the Old Economy

Episode 34: Revenge of the Old Economy

Low interest rates and a focus on being green led to significant underinvestment in the old economy. Netflix rose and Exxon fell. But we’re now beginning a rotation away from the new economy back to the old, says Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs. In this episode of The Active Share, Jeff tells Hugo how he sees the future of energy, from green tech to oil, from the east to the west—who will win, who will lose, and how investors can prepare.

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China: Reopening Should Drive Growth

China: Reopening Should Drive Growth

After a year of anemic growth—by China’s standards—we expect a recovery in Chinese economic activity to gradually take place in 2023. The government has abandoned its zero-COVID policy and re-pivoted to growth, and the reopening, combined with a benign inflationary...

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Emerging Markets Debt: Clearer Skies Ahead?

Emerging Markets Debt: Clearer Skies Ahead?

While we believe high inflation and monetary policy tightening have the potential to cloud the beginning of 2023, we expect market conditions to improve as we move through the year and inflationary pressures dissipate, particularly in the United States. There, we...

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Emerging Markets Equities: Positioned for a Rebound?

Emerging Markets Equities: Positioned for a Rebound?

 In a bleak year for equity investors globally, several emerging markets (EMs) have been among the best performers on a relative basis. Although the economic and monetary pictures vary dramatically among EMs, developing economies broadly are further ahead than...

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